January 23, 2026
After a challenging couple of years for the residential property and construction sector, the latest housing data is starting to tell a more encouraging story — particularly for new builds.
The January 2026 New Zealand Housing Chart Pack shows a market that has largely moved through its correction phase and is now transitioning into a period of stabilisation and early recovery. While this isn’t a rapid upswing, the signals are important — especially for buyers, builders, and developers considering their next move.
One of the clearest takeaways from the data is that house prices have broadly stabilised after the declines seen through 2023–2024. Monthly movements are flattening, and annual change rates are beginning to trend back toward positive territory.
This matters because markets tend to turn before confidence fully returns. Historically, the point at which prices stop falling is where informed buyers begin re-entering — not when headlines turn optimistic.
Sales volumes remain below long-term averages, but the data shows a clear lift from the lows. This aligns with what we’re seeing on the ground at KEY2.
In January alone, KEY2 completed over 40 signed sales contracts, an early-year result that signals buyers are no longer just watching — they’re acting. Importantly, many of these buyers are choosing new builds and house & land packages over existing homes.
The chart pack highlights a critical imbalance forming in the market: housing supply is tightening, while population growth and long-term demand continue.
New dwelling consents remain well below previous peaks, which means fewer homes are being delivered into the market just as demand begins to lift. This is where new builds become increasingly relevant.
Buyers are gravitating toward new builds because they offer:
For many purchasers, new builds remove the unknowns that caused hesitation over the past two years.
One of the most important insights from the data is timing. Construction cycles lag market recoveries. By the time confidence is widespread and competition increases, the best land and build opportunities are often already gone.
This creates a window in 2026 where:
This isn’t about chasing a boom — it’s about positioning ahead of the curve.
KEY2 operates at the intersection of buyer demand, land supply, and new build delivery. We work closely with purchasers, builders, developers, and brokers, giving us real-time insight into what is converting — not just what looks good on paper.
Right now, we’re seeing consistent enquiry and activity across key growth locations including:
These areas continue to attract buyers seeking long-term value, lifestyle, and certainty — particularly through new build options.
The data doesn’t suggest a runaway market in 2026 — but it does confirm that the direction of travel has changed.
For those considering a new build — whether as a home or an investment — this period of stabilisation and early recovery presents opportunity. The advantage isn’t speed. It’s clarity.
If you’re thinking about building, buying, or bringing land or projects to market this year, now is the right time to have that conversation.
Source:
KEY2 Real Estate Ltd
