NZ Housing Market Update: Why New Builds Are Gaining Momentum Again

After a prolonged period of uncertainty, the latest December 2025 NZ Housing Chart Pack from Cotality shows a market that is no longer falling - but quietly resetting.

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While headlines may still suggest caution, the underlying data reveals conditions that increasingly favour new-build homes and house-and-land packages.

Prices Have Stabilised

National property values were flat over the past three months, with only a minor -0.7% annual decline. After a cumulative 17.4% fall from peak, this plateau is a critical signal that the correction phase is largely behind us.

For buyers, this creates a rare window: pricing has adjusted, but competition hasn’t yet surged.

Buyer Demand Is Strong - Especially for New Builds

First-home buyers continue to dominate the market, accounting for 28.2% of purchases. Many are accessing KiwiSaver and low-deposit lending, making turnkey and fixed-price new builds particularly appealing due to affordability certainty and lower upfront costs.

At the same time, investors have returned. Mortgaged multi-property owners now represent 25% of purchases, driven by improving yields and falling mortgage rates. Importantly, new builds remain popular among this group thanks to lower maintenance, stronger tenant appeal and long-term compliance advantages.

Rental Yields Are Improving

Gross rental yields have climbed to 3.8% nationally, the highest since 2016. While rent growth itself has softened, declining property values combined with lower interest rates have dramatically reduced cashflow pressure for investors.

This makes new-build investments - particularly dual-income and high-efficiency homes - increasingly compelling.

Supply Is Starting to Tighten

Although listings remain elevated, total stock is now 13% lower than this time last year. As sales volumes continue to rise and new supply moderates, this excess inventory is gradually being absorbed - a typical precursor to renewed price growth.

Looking Ahead to 2026

Cotality forecasts economic growth of around 3% in 2026, easing unemployment and modest property value growth of approximately 5%. Lending rules may cap runaway price increases, but the outlook is far healthier than the past two years.

In this environment, buyers are prioritising certainty, quality, and long-term value - all hallmarks of well-designed new-build homes.

Bottom line:
The data confirms what we’re seeing on the ground. The market has stabilised, confidence is returning, and new builds are uniquely positioned to benefit as momentum builds into 2026.

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