NZ Property Market: Steadying Now, Poised for Growth in 2026

CoreLogic’s October 2025 NZ Housing Chart Pack paints a picture of a market that’s stabilising after two years of correction — and beginning to turn the corner.

Sales Activity Rebounds

After a brief winter slowdown, sales volumes jumped 4% year-on-year in September, marking the 27th increase in the past 29 months.
More listings are coming to market as confidence builds, but higher buyer demand is absorbing much of the new stock.

Mortgage rate reductions and a recent 0.5% OCR cut are giving buyers fresh motivation.

Values Holding, Christchurch Leads Stability

Nationally, property values dipped 0.7% in the September quarter and 0.2% over the year, the smallest annual fall since mid-2024.
While Auckland and Wellington are still sliding slightly, Christchurch (+0.4%), Tauranga, and Invercargill are showing resilience.
Overall, values sit about 17% below the market peak, but CoreLogic expects modest growth to return in 2026 as lending costs ease and employment strengthens.

First-Home Buyers and Investors Return

First-home buyers now make up a record 28% of all purchases, using KiwiSaver and low-deposit options to get into the market ahead of December’s LVR changes.
Investor activity is also recovering — up to 24% of market share, the highest since early 2021 — helped by improving yields and reduced cash-flow top-ups.

Rents, Yields and Affordability

Rents softened by 1.1% year-on-year, one of the first declines since 2009, but gross rental yields have risen to 3.8% nationally — their highest in almost a decade.
Combined with falling interest rates, this means investors are facing smaller top-ups and stronger long-term returns.

Looking Ahead

With inflation back within the Reserve Bank’s 1-3% target range, another OCR cut could come in November.
As more homeowners reprice their loans at lower rates and unemployment starts to fall, 2026 is shaping up to be a stronger year for both sales and values.

What It Means for You

• Buyers: Affordability is improving — act before demand picks up further.
• Investors: Higher yields and easing credit make this a prime time to reassess portfolios.
• Sellers: Stock levels are tightening again — presentation and timing matter more than ever.

At KEY2, we’re watching the numbers closely so you don’t have to. If you’d like insights specific to your region or price range, get in touch for a tailored market snapshot.

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